## Concerted Action on Shortsea Shipping

ŠNTUA, 1998

# `APPENDIX: SSS statistics workpackages
`

## 1. Background

During the Bergen Conference on SSS (June 1996), it became obvious that the statistical situation with respect to land, sea and land/sea transport data in Europe is absolutely insufficient. It could be shown that the existing statistics do only partly cover the information required. Discussions held during the SSS-CA meetings in Brussels (27/1/97) and Piraeus (14/6/97) concluded the finding that there is an urgent need for valid and reliable data concerning freight flows information along the whole transport chain including mixed/combined land/sea movements. This also includes the wide variety of ferry and ro/ro traffic from/to the Continent. Several attempts have been undertaken to create consistent data on this topic. In most cases, individual trading areas have been analyzed. A full - scale consistent approach, however, does not yet exist. For several reasons the use of these data causes substantial methodological problems.

Even the quality of overall foreign trade data among European countries and also between these and countries overseas reveal remarkable inconsistencies. This is particularly true for land/sea trade flows. Adequate shipping statistics are lacking. Therefore seaborne foreign trade and its separation from land transport must predominantly be elaborated from foreign trade statistics.

OECD trade statistics (after certain refinements) can be used as key data supplemented by EU external trade statistics by mode of transport. The mode of transport used relates to the moment when the goods cross borders into or out of importing or exporting countries. The foreign trade transport data are available since 1989 or intra and extra community trades. There are several national data sources available concerning trade, transport, ports and ferry/ro-ro operations. They show, however, substantially different levels of quality, validity, and reliability. Figures of OECD, and this is also true for EU external trade statistics are not identical with regards to the importing and exporting countries. In some cases there exist substantial differences between figures of import recorded by an importing country and figures of export recorded by the relevant exporting country.

Recent research activities show that in view of the Intra-EU trades, in more than 400 cases there have been discrepancies of at least 50,000 t between import and export figures. The analysis indicates further that differences are to a large degree attributive to UK related trades due to the Kingdom's definition of seaborne foreign trade.

There is no doubt that the only way to set up a more or less acceptable data base of foreign trade data among the European countries and especially among them and others is to balance out discrepancies by assessment of algorithms based upon functional relationships and matrix operations. Respective results have then to be cross-checked against other data source of national and regional information.

## 2. Methodology: Scope of data for setting-up O/D matrices.

Due to time and other resource limitations, this work will use existing sources of information as much as possible. Although its scope is broadly European, its scope will be by necessity limited by the extent and quality of available data. The scope can be enlarged in the future to the extent that additional data and resources become available.

### 2.1 Existing data bases

The work has to be based on all reliable statistical data available on a national level. This means usage of:

ˇ Foreign trade data (sources: OECD, Eurostat, individual countries)

ˇ Transit statistics from individual countries (Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, etc) including country of origin/ destination.

ˇ transport statistics by modes (rail, road, inland waterways) for Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and others to be identified).

ˇ Port statistics from individual ports concentrating on the major ones and then going down to the minor ones (samples); cooperation with ESPO required.

### 2.2 Establishment of regional transport pattern

The regional pattern of origin/destination flows will have to be established by using all existing traffic information on the regional level in combination with a restricted number of the determinants of demand for transport (population, gross domestic product by economic sectors and/or sectoral employment). Moreover, whenever international O/D flows are not available, domestic traffic volumes can be used as proxies for simulation of the generation of international flows.

The split of freight flows by modes requires some computer modelling which has been applied successfully in previous studies.

### 2.3 Focus on European shipping

In order to identify European shipping flows it is necessary to use port related information as well as data from shipping lines. These data will be raised for the identification of transshipment cargo as well as for route choice considerations. This approach has been applied as part of a recent large-scale study on freight flows between Scandinavia and the Continent.

The matrices to be established should be used as a comprehensive framework for market studies as well as a basis for the evaluation of certain policy measures.

The main objective is to monitor the developments and trends within the short sea market and its submarkets on a valid basis. However, it will not be possible to repeat the whole exercise every year.

In order to derive developments and trends within the short sea market on a permanent and actual basis, well-defined samples of cargo movements will have to be drawn.

In parallel to the O/D matrices generation, a representative sample of major ports (spread over the Mediterranean, the Atlantic Arc, North Sea and Baltic Sea) will be selected which would report at regular intervals on cargo handled in these ports and carried by short sea vessels.

Time series beginning with 1992 data will be delivered for selected key variables with respect to short sea shipping markets.

### 2.4 Definition of the zoning and goods classification.

The disaggregation of the cargo volumes by loading categories is proposed to be as follows:

ˇ dry bulk (iron one, coal, grain, others)

ˇ liquid bulk (crude oil, mineral oil products, others)

ˇ general cargo/breakbulk, specified by conventional cargo, containers and ro-ro traffic)

The geographical disaggregation will consist of up- to 150 zones in Europe, based upon the administrative units and their respective aggregations. A final decision will have to be made on a technical level.

Shortsea vessels could be defined as:

In the case of containers, ships with a capacity below 1000 TEU.

ˇ In the case of general cargo or dry and liquid bulk, ships below 6000 DWT, or ships with length of less than 100 m.

ˇ Roro vessels can all be considered shortsea (except for car carriers).

A time series consisting of the last 5 years (at least) would be required.

### 2.5 Timetable

The scope of work can only be carried out in close cooperation among leading institutions within this specific topic. Accordingly, those institutions would bring their particular experience and data bases into the co-operative work, thereby providing considerable added value to the action. In parallel, a group of nominated national statistical experts will be formed and will be used as a resource in order to provide data and other necessary information.

Implementation should meet the following timetable:

step 1 start of work (month 0)

step 2 analysis of existing data and merging of data files being already processed

step 3 establishment of country- by country trade data by mode and loading categories including transshipment considerations (interim report, month 6)

step 4 state of regionalisation of national data according to the zoning system defined

step 5 derivation of preliminary outcomes on a sampling basis (month 8)

step 6 draft final report (month 10)

step 7 final report (month 12)

Kick-off meeting
Meeting in Brussels, April '99

Meeting in Rijwijk, May '99

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